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Pasar obligasi Asia terlihat tetap tangguh hadapi Fed yang “hawkish”

Suku bunga riil AS belum naik secara signifikan dan titik awal stabilitas makro Asia berarti bahwa Asia akan mampu mengelola siklus pengetatan Fed

Mumbai (ANTARA) – Pasar obligasi di Asia kemungkinan akan tetap tangguh bahkan ketika Federal Reserve AS mulai melonggarkan stimulus dan menaikkan suku bunga tahun ini, kata para ekonom.

Inflasi yang lebih terukur akan membuat kondisi keuangan relatif lebih longgar di Asia, yang mana pasokan obligasi juga lebih sesuai dengan permintaan, kata Robert Tipp, kepala strategi investasi dan kepala obligasi global di PGIM Fixed Income.

Pasar obligasi Asia kemungkinan akan lebih tangguh dalam hal selera risiko, dan risiko kenaikan suku bunga lebih kecil, “terlepas dari situasi di China,” kata Tipp kepada Reuters Global Markets Forum (GMF).

Analis di Morgan Stanley menulis pergeseran sikap kebijakan China dari “pengetatan berlebihan” ke pelonggaran akan mendorong pemulihan di sana.

Tetap “lebih konstruktif daripada konsensus” tentang prospek pertumbuhan Asia, Morgan Stanley juga mengutip ekspor dan belanja modal yang mendorong siklus yang kuat dan produktif di wilayah tersebut.

“Suku bunga riil AS belum naik secara signifikan dan titik awal stabilitas makro Asia berarti bahwa Asia akan mampu mengelola siklus pengetatan Fed,” tulis mereka.

Jepang secara luas diperkirakan akan mempertahankan kebijakan ultra-longgarnya, pelonggaran lebih lanjut China kemungkinan akan menurunkan imbal hasil, sementara imbal hasil Korea Selatan yang telah turun tajam, akan melihat pengetatan bank sentral Korea akan melampaui perkiraan kenaikan pada Jumat (14/1/2022).

“Asia tidak akan tergila-gila tentang suku bunga lokal, jadi mungkin tidak terlalu terpengaruh oleh suku bunga AS,” kata Robert Carnell, kepala ekonom dan kepala penelitian di ING Asia.

“Sebaliknya, obligasi Australia (cenderung) lebih dekat mengikuti obligasi AS, dan kita mungkin melihat bank sentral Australia (RBA) mengisyaratkan tentang akhir tapering mereka sendiri dan akhirnya roll-off,” kata Carnell, dikutip dari Reuters.

Kurva imbal hasil AS telah mendatar setelah risalah Fed pekan lalu, karena investor bersiap untuk kenaikan suku bunga segera setelah Maret yang akan mendorong suku bunga jangka pendek lebih tinggi.

Imbal hasil obligasi pemerintah AS dua tahun naik ke level tertinggi dalam hampir dua tahun di 0,945 persen, tetapi turun menjadi 0,9089 persen setelah kesakisian Ketua Fed Jerome Powell di Kongres pada Selasa (11/1/2022).

Brian Coulton, kepala ekonom di Fitch Ratings, menulis dalam sebuah catatan bahwa normalisasi penuh dapat membuat suku bunga nominal AS naik menjadi sekitar 3,0 persen dalam jangka menengah hingga panjang, berpotensi mendorong kenaikan suku bunga global.

Baca juga: Dolar melemah setelah kesaksian Powell, mata uang berisiko menguat

Baca juga: Dolar di tertinggi 1 bulan terhadap yen didorong “yields” obligasi AS

Baca juga: Emas datar di Asia karena dolar dan imbal hasil obligasi AS stabil

Penerjemah: Apep Suhendar
Editor: Kelik Dewanto
COPYRIGHT © ANTARA 2022

Sumber : AntaraNews.com

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